| 摘要: | 本研究的目的，在探討2003年世界杯十五人制橄欖球賽各級競賽隊伍及冠亞軍賽隊伍(英格蘭與澳洲)，不同得分方式、得分次數分佈狀況、控球優勢與場地優勢之差異情形。本文以2003年世界杯十五人制橄欖球賽大會所提供之全程比賽記錄共24國48場次的賽程為研究資料。本研究範圍針對比賽中的不同得分方式：達陣、達陣後射門、罰踢射門、落踢射門等的得分次數，以及控球優勢比例、場地優勢比例等做統計分析，進而針對冠亞軍隊伍之不同得分方式次數加以分析比較。結果發現：
一、不同得分方式及得分次數：
總賽程預賽中不同得分方式次數比例高低順序為：達陣>.達陣射門>罰踢射門>落踢射門；然而進入晉級賽、準決賽、決賽後，罰踢射門射門得分次數比例均占所有得分次數比率中之最高位，尤其是冠軍隊英格蘭在進入晉級賽後，罰踢射門得分次數與落踢射門得分次數的比例不斷提升，例如：在晉級賽中罰踢射門得分及落踢射門得分之比例分別為66.67%及11.11%，共占所有比率之77.78%；準決賽時罰踢射門得分62.25%，落踢射門得分比例為37.5%，合計占所有比例之100%；決賽時罰踢射門得分比例為66.67%，落踢射門得分比例為16.67%，合計占所有比例之83.34%。
二、控球優勢與場地優勢：
(一) 控球優勢率為：總賽程之勝隊平均為57%大於負隊平均43%，冠軍隊英格蘭平均61%大於亞軍隊澳洲平均51%
(二) 場地優勢：總賽程之勝隊平均54%大於負隊平均46%，冠軍隊英格蘭平均56.25%大於亞軍隊澳洲平均46%
三、英格蘭與澳洲在落踢射門得分次數的比例，經X2考驗達差異顯著水準P<.05。
四、結論：
(一)各隊在與賽隊伍實力懸殊時，比較容易獲得達陣得分及達陣後射門得分的機會。
(二)各隊在與賽隊伍實力接近時，各種進攻球門方式就成為最佳得分方法。
(三)冠軍隊英格蘭在控球優勢、場地優勢的表現上，占有較高的比例也較有機會從事落踢射門得分。
The purpose of this research probed the World Cup 2003 15 people all levels of Rugby match contest teams and compared with the champion and runner-up team (England and Australia) about the different score ways number of times were distributed the state with score, the Possession advantage and the Territory advantage. The data of 48 matches of 24 countries studied the whole match records in the rugby World Cup 2003. This research range was directed against different score ways in the match: Tries , Conversions, Penalties, Drop goals, etc., and the Possession advantage rate, the Territory advantage rate, make statistical analysis, and then different score ways of the teams were analyzed and compared to champion and runner-up teams.
The results indicated:
1. The different score ways number of times:
In the total competition preliminary contest the different score ways number of times proportion height orders : Tries>Conversions>Penalties>Drop goals. However after enters quarter finals, semi finals, final, Penalties score number of times proportion account for high position most of all rate, especially after the champion team England entered quarter finals, Penalties scores the number of times and Drop goals score the rate of the number of times improves constantly. For example: Penalties scores the number of times was 66.67% in quarter finals, the drop goals scores number of times was 11.11%, total 77.78% which accounts for all rates; Penalties scores the number of times was 62.25% in semi finals, Drop goals scores the number of times was 37.5%, total 100% which accounts for all rates, total 100% which accounts for all rates; Penalties scores the number of times was 66.67% in final, Drop goals scores the number of times was 16.67%, total 83.34% which accounts for all rates.
2. Possession advantage and Territory advantage：
(1)The Possession advantage rate was：
Victory of team the total rate was equally 57% was bigger than the negative team average 43%. The champion team England average 61% was bigger than the second place team Australia average 51%.
(2) Territory advantage rate was：
Victory of team the total rate is equally 54% was bigger than the negative team average 46%. The champion team England average 56.26% was bigger than the second place team Australia average 46%.
3. The rate of the number of times that England and Australia score in drop goals, was tested the difference of reaching by X2 test and obtained significance level ( P<. 05).
4. Conclusions：
(1) Every team easy to get Tries score and Conversions score When the victory team and the negative team's wide margin.
(2)Various teams when strength close, each kick goal way becomes the best score method.
(3) The champion team, England is on the behavior of Possession advantage and Territory advantage, occupy higher rate, also obtains the more opportunities at Drop kick goals. |
